Atlanta: A Potential Game-Changer for Future Political Conventions
In the heart of Atlanta, political discussions are heating up regarding the potential impact of hosting future party conventions in the city. The successful 2024 Democratic convention in Chicago has sparked debates about ideal locations for upcoming conventions, with many experts believing that Atlanta and its surrounding Cobb County could be a strategic goldmine for either party.
Atlanta, once the host of the 1988 Democratic convention, remains a city rich in political history and influence. Back in ’88, the presence of notable figures, including former President Jimmy Carter, provided a significant boost to the Democratic nominee, Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis. He rode a wave of enthusiasm to a remarkable 17-percentage point lead over Vice-President George H. W. Bush, although he ultimately lost in the general election.
It’s worth noting, however, that considerations beyond the convention tend to affect electoral outcomes. Political science research, such as a detailed study conducted by undergraduates at LaGrange College, reveals that convention bumps are often overrated. The analysis, spanning from 1936 to 2020, concluded that hosting conventions in a particular state generally resulted in a net gain of -0.3 percentage points, indicating a slight decline compared to previous election performances.
Despite these findings, recent trends suggest potential advantages. The Republican party, for instance, held their 2016 convention in Cleveland, Ohio, a state they had lost twice to Obama, but subsequently won with Donald Trump. Similarly, the Democrats held their 2020 convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, flipping the state back to blue with Joe Biden.
While Milwaukee is set to host the 2024 GOP convention, the focus is shifting towards the possibilities Atlanta offers. The city and Cobb County represent a dynamic political battleground with ample venues for watch parties, campaign events, and significant voter engagement. Given its status as one of the most pivotal swing states, Georgia’s influence in national politics cannot be understated.
For Democrats, the prospect of choosing Atlanta for their 2028 convention appears enticing. Returning to the South for the first time since 2012, and specifically to Georgia for the first time since 1988, could potentially provide the party with much-needed momentum and visibility. Past election cycles have demonstrated the importance of well-placed conventions, even if the direct impact is modest.
Professor John A. Tures of LaGrange College underscores the strategic value of Atlanta. Given the fluctuating political landscape in Georgia, hosting a major convention here could energize the base and attract undecided voters. Tures argues that such a move could “lead to a big lead” for either party, positioning them favorably in an increasingly competitive arena.
As political parties evaluate their strategies for future conventions, Atlanta and Cobb County stand out as compelling choices. The historical significance, coupled with recent electoral trends, suggests that tapping into this vibrant region could yield substantial benefits. In the end, the right location might just tip the scales in a closely contested election, making Atlanta a city to watch closely in the coming years.
